Hi,
I am writing an off beat thought here, and want to deal with a mathematical technique called probability, which means chance in a layman's language and the problem of plenty, which again means, many in a layman's language.
Before, all of you even start guessing that about what I am going to talk, I will clarify, the problem of plenty is about applying to job positions in the multinational corporations.
Now, don't get me wrong. I have absolutely nothing against the corporations, and also, the way people, especially Indians think. This is just a thought which came to my mind while searching for new jobs.
To begin with, I will explain about probability, please don't get scared, as I am not going to cover the nitty-gritty of this subject, which itself is a paradox, and I believe that the probability that probability understands itself is zero. Now, the definition of probability from wikipedia:
'Probability is used to quantify an attitude of mind towards some proposition of whose truth we are not certain.[2] The proposition of interest is usually of the form "Will a specific event occur?" The attitude of mind is of the form "How certain are we that the event will occur?" The certainty we adopt can be described in terms of a numerical measure and this number, between 0 and 1 (where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty), we call probability.[3] Thus the higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur. A simple example would be the toss of a fair coin. Since the 2 outcomes are deemed equiprobable, the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails" and each probability is 1/2 or equivalently a 50% chance of either "heads" or "tails". '
Scared? Confused? Ha ha, don't worry, as I have said, that probability that probability understands itself is zero. I will tell you the most simplest of the thing about probability while dealing with this paradox : "PROBABILITY WILL NEVER BE LESS THAN ZERO AND GREATER THAN ONE".
Just keep zero and one in mind, and your life will be easy, whatever outcomes we obtain from the total number of universal set is probability.
So suppose, I have two coins, and coins have HEADS AND TAILS ,so
Total number of the Event E = {2}, as heads and tails
Sample count of Heads in a 'FAIR' coin H = {1}
Sample count of Tails in a 'FAIR' coin T = {1}
Probability of obtaining HEAD while a 'FAIR' coin is flipped P{H | E} = 1/2 = 50%
I guess this is sufficient.
Ahh, now the original matter. While I have been applying for new positions for my job search, which I guess is considered very normal for an IT guy of India, in order to increase my package, I started thinking on this that people 'ADVISE', which is another 'INDIAN' trait, me to keep on applying and then you will get through. So keep on applying here means that I must keep on posting my portfolio or resume to various companies, and then, I will get short-listed by them, and then they will follow an algorithmic procedure to hire me.
Wait, you will tell me that what's so wrong with it, that it made me to write a blog, that too, using a topic like probability. I will say, why not apply probability to give a proof that applying profiles to hoards of companies to seek out employment actually reduces our chances of getting an employment.
Yes, you have read it RIGHT, the more we will apply to companies, the more it will reduce our employability chance.
How?
Now, consider a case, I apply to one company, so my chances of getting entry into that company or organization will be 1, as there is only one sample event and one event which will occur, so it is 100%, similarly, chances of not getting into that organization will be zero, which I guess is fair.
I apply to two companies, so chances of getting call of an interview is (1/2), chances of not getting an interview call (1/2) as in probability, the sum of the outcomes is always 1.
This gives rise to interesting cases now. I have got a call of interview, I will do research about that firm, could be possible that I like it and I decide to attend the interivew.
So chances of all those three outcomes would be (1/3) * (1/3) * (1/3), and this is out of the 50% of the chances, so overall probability (1/2) * (1/27) = (1/54).
Probability of not happening this would be 1- 1/54 = 53/54 almost equal to 1.
53/54 > 1/54.
We can clearly see that the chances of getting selected in an organization decreases as we apply to more firms. If the situation is getting out of control by applying to two firms, then imagine what would be the result if we apply for jobs to more than 10 firms.
But Indians keep on applying for jobs in the portals thinking that more the application, more the chances of getting selected.
This was just an attempt on my side of trying to prove a hypothesis which I had thought off, and could be possible that I may be wrong.
Happy Reading!
I am writing an off beat thought here, and want to deal with a mathematical technique called probability, which means chance in a layman's language and the problem of plenty, which again means, many in a layman's language.
Before, all of you even start guessing that about what I am going to talk, I will clarify, the problem of plenty is about applying to job positions in the multinational corporations.
Now, don't get me wrong. I have absolutely nothing against the corporations, and also, the way people, especially Indians think. This is just a thought which came to my mind while searching for new jobs.
To begin with, I will explain about probability, please don't get scared, as I am not going to cover the nitty-gritty of this subject, which itself is a paradox, and I believe that the probability that probability understands itself is zero. Now, the definition of probability from wikipedia:
'Probability is used to quantify an attitude of mind towards some proposition of whose truth we are not certain.[2] The proposition of interest is usually of the form "Will a specific event occur?" The attitude of mind is of the form "How certain are we that the event will occur?" The certainty we adopt can be described in terms of a numerical measure and this number, between 0 and 1 (where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty), we call probability.[3] Thus the higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur. A simple example would be the toss of a fair coin. Since the 2 outcomes are deemed equiprobable, the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails" and each probability is 1/2 or equivalently a 50% chance of either "heads" or "tails". '
Scared? Confused? Ha ha, don't worry, as I have said, that probability that probability understands itself is zero. I will tell you the most simplest of the thing about probability while dealing with this paradox : "PROBABILITY WILL NEVER BE LESS THAN ZERO AND GREATER THAN ONE".
Just keep zero and one in mind, and your life will be easy, whatever outcomes we obtain from the total number of universal set is probability.
So suppose, I have two coins, and coins have HEADS AND TAILS ,so
Total number of the Event E = {2}, as heads and tails
Sample count of Heads in a 'FAIR' coin H = {1}
Sample count of Tails in a 'FAIR' coin T = {1}
Probability of obtaining HEAD while a 'FAIR' coin is flipped P{H | E} = 1/2 = 50%
I guess this is sufficient.
Ahh, now the original matter. While I have been applying for new positions for my job search, which I guess is considered very normal for an IT guy of India, in order to increase my package, I started thinking on this that people 'ADVISE', which is another 'INDIAN' trait, me to keep on applying and then you will get through. So keep on applying here means that I must keep on posting my portfolio or resume to various companies, and then, I will get short-listed by them, and then they will follow an algorithmic procedure to hire me.
Wait, you will tell me that what's so wrong with it, that it made me to write a blog, that too, using a topic like probability. I will say, why not apply probability to give a proof that applying profiles to hoards of companies to seek out employment actually reduces our chances of getting an employment.
Yes, you have read it RIGHT, the more we will apply to companies, the more it will reduce our employability chance.
How?
Now, consider a case, I apply to one company, so my chances of getting entry into that company or organization will be 1, as there is only one sample event and one event which will occur, so it is 100%, similarly, chances of not getting into that organization will be zero, which I guess is fair.
I apply to two companies, so chances of getting call of an interview is (1/2), chances of not getting an interview call (1/2) as in probability, the sum of the outcomes is always 1.
This gives rise to interesting cases now. I have got a call of interview, I will do research about that firm, could be possible that I like it and I decide to attend the interivew.
So chances of all those three outcomes would be (1/3) * (1/3) * (1/3), and this is out of the 50% of the chances, so overall probability (1/2) * (1/27) = (1/54).
Probability of not happening this would be 1- 1/54 = 53/54 almost equal to 1.
53/54 > 1/54.
We can clearly see that the chances of getting selected in an organization decreases as we apply to more firms. If the situation is getting out of control by applying to two firms, then imagine what would be the result if we apply for jobs to more than 10 firms.
But Indians keep on applying for jobs in the portals thinking that more the application, more the chances of getting selected.
This was just an attempt on my side of trying to prove a hypothesis which I had thought off, and could be possible that I may be wrong.
Happy Reading!
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